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Save stat is flawed, but closers remain essential


Save stat is flawed, but closers remain essential
The Angels' Francisco Rodriguez will not get enough credit when he breaks Bobby Thigpen's all-time record of 57 saves in a season. Why? K-Rod needs just two saves to tie the record, and the Rays' recent struggles are generating more buzz.

Closing arguments


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The whole thing makes no sense. The save statistic is flawed, yet somehow almighty. Which is not to demean the importance of closers. Pitching in the ninth inning of a close game is indeed different than pitching in the seventh or eighth. If a reliever blows a lead early, his team still has a chance to come back. No such safety net exists in the ninth.

The distinction remains difficult to quantify, though sabermetricians are making progress in determining the true value of closers. One could make the statistical argument that Rodriguez is not enjoying as good a season as his bullpen mate, Jose Arredondo, but Arredondo is not yet a closer. Rodriguez has proven that he possesses the physical ability and mental strength for the role.

K-Rod, 26, is the youngest pitcher to reach 200 career saves. His 90.2 success rate this season ranks only sixth in the majors, but he has had 14 more opportunities than the next-closest reliever — 14 more opportunities to suffer mental lapses, 14 more opportunities to make critical mistakes.

True, Rodriguez is in position to break the record only because the Angels play so many close games — their plus-66 run differential ranks only sixth in the AL, and 55 percent of their games have been decided by one or two runs. In other words, K-Rod is the equivalent of a slugger who leads his league in RBIs while getting the most chances with runners in scoring position. But time and again, he has navigated the grind, helping the Angels build the best record in the majors.

Is he the most efficient closer? Hardly. Five of Rodriguez's American League counterparts — the Yankees' Mariano Rivera, Red Sox's Jonathan Papelbon, Twins' Joe Nathan, Royals' Joakim Soria and White Sox's Bobby Jenks — rank significantly ahead of him this season in ERA and opponents' OPS. All but Jenks boast a better strikeout-to-walk ratio.

If the Angels, as expected, part with Rodriguez as a free agent, they will make the case that he is not all that he appears, pitching with less fastball velocity than in the past, allowing too many baserunners, forever courting trouble. But Rodriguez's chances of landing his desired five-year, $75 million contract improved on Monday when the Mets announced that their closer, Billy Wagner, will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the rest of this season and likely all of 2009. Rest assured, if the Mets don't pay Rodriguez, some other team will.

K-Rod has adjusted to his diminished velocity by developing a terrific changeup, a pitch that he threw 10 percent of the time last season and has increased to 16 percent this season, according to Bill James Online. His violent delivery remains a source of concern, but Rodriguez has been on the disabled list only once, in 2005.

We can talk about his peripheral statistics. We can talk about the inadequacy of the save rule. But in the end, this is a game of results.

The ultimate measure of a team is its won-loss record. The ultimate measure of a closer is saves.


Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: September 10, 2008

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