Joe Mauer's sore back might turn out to be the best development of the Twins' training camp because it has provided them with the element they were missing most: doubt.
Sure, Minnesota wants its All-Star catcher back quickly, and by all diagnoses, Mauer won't be gone long. But hand-wringing over their imminent doom allows the Twins to obscure the fact that they are as confident about their AL Central chances as they have been in at least three years. "A lot of people pick this (other) team or that team, and we're OK with that," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "We like it when everybody is looking the other way. But make sure you check back with us at the end."
His confidence is born of a pitching rotation that was put in place last summer and appears ready to blossom.
Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano have exhibited signs of stardom during spring training -- Slowey has walked one hitter in six starts -- and Scott Baker was deemed worthy of a $15.25 million contract.
Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins are less well known, yet all but Liriano won at least 11 games last season, and the Twins expect all of them to keep improving.
The bullpen is less settled, and after the camp washout of Jose Mijares, it could be a month or two before Gardenhire finds a setup man he thinks he can trust. But Joe Nathan in the ninth inning is as sure a bet as there is in baseball.
Spring training settled nothing about the Twins' crowded outfield, other than that all four outfielders can help.
As long as nobody gets hurt or gripes too much, expect Gardenhire to play lineup lottery every day, with either Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer or Delmon Young being told to sit down while the other three play. Can that work?
"I don't have any idea," the manager said.
Third baseman Joe Crede's arrival has shored up the Twins' biggest weakness, and he has already significantly upgraded the defense.
The Twins always value catching the ball, and an infield of Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto and Crede might be baseball's most sure-handed.
Which leaves Mauer, the Twins' biggest question mark. He spent seven weeks of training camp trying to get healthy, and he'll need at least another two or three.
The two-time batting champion leaves a large hole in the lineup, but the Twins can survive if he returns in April or May. Any longer than that, and the Twins' doomsayers will probably be proved correct.
THE TWINS WILL CONTEND IF ...: LHP Francisco Liriano becomes the star the Twins think he will be. Scouts begin using the word "Pedro" when describing Liriano's changeup, referring to Pedro Martinez. His lethal slider, which propelled him to momentary stardom in 2006 before it devoured his elbow, is diving for the dirt again, but not with the same force. But Liriano has added a changeup that, used in conjunction with his 94-mph fastball, is so good, so Pedro-esque, manager Ron Gardenhire believes it will become Liriano's out pitch. A big year from the Dominican could help the Twins cover for an iffy bullpen.
PRIMED FOR A BIG SEASON: DH Jason Kubel once was considered a better hitting prospect than 1B Justin Morneau or C Joe Mauer, but he shredded his knee in the Arizona Fall League in 2004, and it's taken years to restore his comfort level at the plate. But Kubel came to camp with a new two-year contract and a new confidence and immediately began bashing. He hit 13 homers in 2007 and 20 last year. Expect that trajectory to continue.
ON THE DECLINE: RHP Matt Guerrier tried to step into the primary setup role when Pat Neshek tore an elbow ligament in May, but he was soon overworked and overwhelmed. His ERA was 10.06 after Aug. 1, and his spring performance gives little hope that he can be trusted with a lead anymore.
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